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Arkansas at Vandy
12:21 PM
This one will come down to a stout Vandy defense vs a talented Ark offense. A lot of the public was let down last week when they didn’t cover against Ole Miss, we are concerned this line may have that factored in. Vandy is 5-2 ATS, with the 2 non-covers coming to Alabama and South Carolina, they are historically terrible but their defense has made them a competitive team this year, ESPN thinks this switch to Aaron Rodgers’s younger brother gives them offensive hope, but wee think that is more a function of Army being terrible. Anyway they had decent performances in a victory over Uconn, a 30-7 trouncing of Ole Miss, and a close loss to a very strong Georgia team 33-28… (not bad). Their 2 worst losses have come @ Bama and @ South Carolina but we are not too worried about those 2 games because this game is @ Vandy. Their defense is their biggest strength and though they do give up 21 per game there aren’t a lot of “Inflation numbers” (we mean some teams give up an average of 10 points per game but you see they gave up 0 to Eastern State, William and Thomas Prep Academy, and Kent State, but they also gave up 35 to Western Kentucky, and Eastern Michigan, realistically that’s 35x2=70/5=14pts per but who cares you get the point) They are a tough D and can contain strong offenses, but I can still see Arkansas making it to 30, the next question is: Do we think Vandy can get in the end-zone. Outside of the Bama and SC games they have topped 24 in every game, and on the other side of the ball Arkansas has allowed 28 to offensively intept TROY, 38 to a tough A&M team, 38 to Bama, 14 to Auburn, and 24 to terrible Ole Miss. We think Vandy gets their points and keeps the game within 10.
Clemson at Georgia Tech
8:00 PM
They are both known for scoring, historically it’s been a close series, don’t count your chickens before they hatch, etc. etc.
As we start looking at numbers, Both teams come in with powerful offenses GT putting up 38 points per game 321yds on the ground ad 157 through the air, while Clemson shows a bit more “traditional” balance with 180 on the ground and 303 through the air and a solid 40 points per. Defenses are similar but GT has the more proficient pass defense allowing only 170 yards per game (good for 8th in the country). The previous best pass D Clemson had faced was FSU who ranks 39th in the country (208yds per). In that game they put up 344 through the air… then we look at total D. Clemson has played the #12 and #13 best Total defenses against FSU and VaTech and hasn’t struggled too much.. We know Gtech is going to run the triple option, as does everyone else and we think Clemson will sniff it out, We are just unsure as to how many points they will score. Last year Clemson won as 4 point favorites by 14 and this year should be even more of a whooping in my opinion. Clemson comes in riding an 8 game winning streak (7-1 ATS), while GaTech has lost their last 3 ATS and 2 SU. Common opponents are Maryland and UNC, both teams coming out victorious, but Clemson by the larger margin in both games. |
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