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Creighton at Missouri State
8:05pm
Creighton has a great offense, lets get that out of the way first and foremost. They can score from pretty much any position on the court and go on a run at any given time., In the Half court game,, they try to get the ball to McDermott where he can go one-on-one with his back to the basket and either get a shot attempt or kick it out for one of their many 3 point threats on the outside. . So, we are well aware that Creighton can put up points in a flash. What we also have noticed about Creighton though is they don’t really have a defense built on fundamentals. They have no rhythm, they’re always out of place, and any team can get a good shot on just about every possession. From a defensive standpoint, their main goal as a defender is to keep the ball in front of you and don’t allow penetration. Creighton is not a team that is good at recovering once they are attacked at a guard standpoint, and they’ll take their chances with Echenique or McDermott in the paint getting a block. Creighton has immediate revenge here, so that’s a nice angle if you think it’s present. We don't buy it in this match up, we expect things to turn out similar to the 1st meeting in fact we think it will be a bigger blowout. If you watched the first meeting here is what we noticed, First, Missouri State could get any shot it wanted to. And Second, their ability to not only attack, but use the ball screen to attack really opens up an even bigger hole in an already pathetic defense. Again, when they attack, the Creighton guards have no way to recover and if they aren’t keeping Missouri State in front of them, they’re in a rough spot. One more thing that we can take from that previous game, and it’s a really important one and pretty much a basis for the play and it relies in the match ups. In that first meeting, Creighton started out with McDermott on Weems. This forces Creighton’s best offensive weapon to not only score a ton to stay in the ball game, but at the same time he’s being forced to defend Missouri State’s best offensive option and he’s forced to defend him out to 25 feet. They didn’t stick with it for the entire game, as they went to switching every ball screen and/or down screen, but there is also one more little teeny tiny important thing that plays into this as well. With McDermott extending out to the perimeter on Weems, the inside is a now open. Not only that, but Caleb Patterson usually starts on the outside within the offense against a man-to-man defense. If you’re not familiar with Patterson, he’s a lengthy center who can also take the outside jump shot on occasion. When MO STATE attacks, and when they get to the rim, there is an extremely good chance that one, if not both of Creighton’s interior defenders are somewhere out on the perimeter. This is a BAD matchup for the Creighton defense. Missouri state is going to accept this up tempo game with open arms because they want Creighton in the open court forcing up quick shots. There really is no reason to make Creighton a favorite here. Sure they are ranked with a good Offense, but defense has been the key to winning Valley games, especially in a home setting. Defense will win this game. Missouri State by Double digits.
NCAA Free Pick - Missouri State Money Line
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