01-31-11 Free NBA

I'm actually going to wait until closer to game-time to play this one, as I expect the line to shift at least to +2 Grizzlies. Currently 95% of all the early bets are on Orlando, so hopefully by morning it's at +2. In any case, I'll grade it at +1.5 since that's where the line is right now. Let's break this one down:
Memphis are coming into this one at 24-24, 1.5 games behind Portland for the 8th and final playoff spot in the West. Orlando is battling for the #1 seed in the East. Clearly, the game is very important for both teams. There are a number of factors here that favor the Grizzlies though.

#1) 2nd of a b2b and 3rd game in 4 nights for Orlando
The Magic are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 times in a second game of a b2b. 'Fatigue' spot for Orlando, as they had to travel to Chicago on the 28th, the to Cleveland for yesterday's game, and now to Memphis. Grizzlies have been at home for the past 4 days and had an off-day yesterday to practice and prepare for this game tonight.

#2) Revenge
The first meeting between these 2 teams took place in Orlando, with Magic winning it 89-72. Even though the Grizzlies attempted 16 more shots, had 6 more offensive rebounds, and 5 more assists, they shot a season-low 36% in that one. Grizzlies shoot 48% and score 103 ppg at home so I definitely see them improving on those #'s in tonight's game. Consequently, the Grizz are 18-9 ATS this season when revenging a loss, indicating that this team really puts forth excellent effort in this scenario.

#3) Head-to-head trends
Even though the Grizzlies have lost the first game between the 2 teams, they have won 2 straight, and 7 of last 8 home games against the Magic. Orlando is 1-7 ATS in those 8 meetings in Memphis and 5-12 ATS overall against them.

#4) PG Matchup
With 'Agent Zero' being banged up right now (I believe he is doubtful to play tonight as well), Duhon is the back-up to Jameer Nelson, who is also hobbled right now with tendinitis issues. I see Conley taking advantage here and being a 'difference-maker' in this one. He has been playing really well lately, shooting the ball at 49% from the field, averaging 14 ppg and 6 assists, in the last 4 games. In that first game against Magic he was the only 'bright spot' for the Grizzlies with 11 points on 5-11 from the field, 8 assists and only 2 turnovers in 36 minutes. Actually, he's only averaging 1.5 turnovers per game in his last 4. Protecting the ball will be critical in this one, and even though Conley is not the primary offensive target, I see him being very efficient with his minutes, shooting a high %age from the field and distributing the ball to the scorers, Randolph and Gay.