2:00 EST

 

 Both teams lost their last games to much weaker opposition, quite likely looking ahead to this game. Butler had been getting a little too much love off of last year, and I really think Brad Stevens has them "regrouped", if you will.

They hammered Valpo by 17 earlier this season, and at first glance people are going to point to and bet on Valpo for revenge reasons. I like to back that angle (as opposed to ignore it) more often than not, but in this game the matchups are going to be too much to overcome the emotion, just like the first game.

Butler scores a whopping 30% of their points from the charity stripe, and they shoot almost 74% as a team. Valpo has been getting lots of action, and deservedly so, but this is still a team that hasn't been in the top 200 for the last two years, and this may be a quantum leap for them to maintain. Valpo has a remarkable two-point shooting percentage, as individuals (Corey Johnson -58% and Howard Little-61%) but their lack of size/length against 6' 11" Andrew Smith and trying to contain Matt Howard (who can score from anywhere) are going to wear this young and small team down.

Valpo simply doesn't get to the line enough for me to back against a good team, and they don't shoot well enough from downtown to pull away from the Bulldogs. Butler is too well coached, and needs this game to pull ahead of Valpo in the Horizon League as well as stay within striking distance of Cleveland State, who they've already beaten and still have a game with. Combine that with Butler's far better SOS and the fact that they may catch a possession in the spread as a loser last week, make this too much to pass up.

 

NCAA Basketball Free Pick - Butler