Dallas Mavericks -5.5
Todays Free Pick

 

This is a very bad spot for the Houston Rockets. Playing 3 games in 4 nights and actually playing 5 games in 7 days. They did played 3 fast paced games and fatigue should be a huge factor. Then, to make things worse for them, they will be playing a Mavs' team who's 10th in defensive efficiency and 6th in points allowed with 94.4. Trends doesn't really mean much since both teams cancels each other out in some spots. Don't get me wrong, this one isn't a lock or anything. If the Rockets have a favorable schedule, I'd probably be on them instead. Dallas won 3 of their last 5 but those were ugly wins. Dirk is almost there with his numbers except his FG% is way down. They had a hard time against Jersey and had an ugly win against the Clippers. I think that one game should pretty much serve as a wake up game for them to keep things together. In the past, both teams splits their last two season series with only one game being decided by 6 points or less.
In their 11/29/10 matchup, Nowitzki and Butler came up big with key runs in the second and the fourth quarter. Mavs shot almost 50% from the field while limiting the Rockets to 36 which the Mavs could barely do the last 5 games. They were almost even in every other stat except for a 39-47 rebounding edge in favor of the Mavs. Again, the play is one against the bad scheduling and fatigue factor for the Rockets catching a rested Mavericks team who plays much better at home and even better with the crowd feeding them energy.

 

Take the Mavs