 |
| Free Pick on Boise State +6.5 Boise has lost 7 straight games, all in conference play, going 1-6 ATS in these games. Idaho has lost 5 straight games, all in conference play, going 1-4 ATS. Boise is playing with double revenge, as Idaho swept the season series last season, winning the 2 games by a combined 6 points. Boise does not guard the 3-point line well, allowing opponents to shoot 37.9% from the arch, and Idaho shoots well from there, shooting at 39.5% from deep this season. The Broncos will need to key their 3-point defense on the Vandals senior transfer Steffan Johnson, as he is their main threat the deep. Where the Broncos do hold the edge is on the boards and on turnover differential. Boise has been outrebounding opponents in conference, and staying even in the turnover battle. Idaho has been outrebounded by opponents in conference, and has been losing the turnover battle. These factors should lead to Boise having more field goal attempts. So while the Vandals could likely shoot a higher percentage, Boise will stay in the game by simply having more chances to score. Another factor that could keep this game close, especially down the stretch, is the poor free throw shooting of Idaho. They shoot only 65.8% from the line. A flaw which could certainly show itself, especially during this very important game. Recent lines against common opponents. To compare apples to apples, I will give the neutral line (moving the line 4 points in favor of the road team), which is the line if the team played on a neutral court. Boise Idaho vs Nevada +7.5 +7 vs San Jose State -3 -1.5 vs Utah State +9.5 +10.5 vs New Mexico St -3 -2.5 vs Hawaii -2 -3 vs La Tech +6.5 +5 From these line comparisons, I would conclude that these teams, on a neutral court, are within a point of each other. Add in the home court advantage, and I would have Idaho favored by between 3 and 5 points. The line for this game opened at Idaho -7, and quickly moved to 6.5 The free picks and free winners continue to win. Call now for guaranteed free picks. |
|
