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Milwaukee Bucks @ Houston Rockets
8:00 pm
We don't understand this line. We know the Bucks won on the road against the Knicks and Miami, but are just +4 against a red hot team like Houston? Milwaukee lost it's first 8 (EIGHT) games on the road, now they've got one quality win on the road (@Miami when Chalmers and LeBron kept pilling up turnovers) and this line is just 0.5 or 1 point more than the Rockets' home court advantage against average teams?
You would think that Milwaukee, being such a physical team, should own the boards, right? we seriously dont think so in this one, they are ranked 24th in rebounding, with 40.9 per game, while Houston is #6, with 43.6 per game. Altough Milwaukee has a better pace, they have an average off 92 possessions per game, in which they average 91.8 ppg. Houston averages the same amount of possessions per game, but are scoring 97.4 ppg, and that's a big difference. On the defensive end, it's not such a big difference as one would've thought, Milwaukee allows 96.1 ppg, while Houston allows 97.8 ppg.
Kevin Martin and Kevin Lowry of the Rockets, are averaging 23.6 ppg and 18.1 ppg during the 7 win stretch. Even though Milwaukee won its last two games on the road, there are big differences between this two teams depending where they play. Houston is averaging 99.6 ppg at home with 46.3 FG%, 83.2 FT% and 46 rebounds, while Bucks on the road is averaging 88.2 ppg, 40.8 FG%, 40.4 boards.
Milwaukee will travel after this game to Chicago to play against the Bulls, so this might be a factor tonight. We know Jennings is having a great season, but Lowry is in my opinion in top 3 of the PGs that can actually play defense. He is aggressive and he is willing to take charges. We are going to roll with the home squad in this one.
NBA Expert Handicappers free Pick winner - Rockets -4
Bama at South Carolina
8:00 pm
Bama is on a 3 game skid losing at Miss St, Vanderbilt, and at Kentucky. This is a solid basketball team that just ran across a very tough stretch of games. What we like seeing from them is that they have played very well on the road in conference even though their record is only 1-2. They led Miss State late before Dee Bost exploded for three 3PTs down the stretch. They played Kentucky very tough on Saturday on 36 hours rest and now we think you will get a focused effort from a team that should get into the tournament pretty easily.
Releford and Green were great this past weekend. Green's performance was the best we have seen from him all year finally coming out of his slump. Releford is playing great ball right now and getting great PG play always helps when trying to win on the road. If Tony Mitchell will get his head out of his rear end then we believe that this team has the schedule to finish the season on a great streak.
This game with South Carolina is a great matchup.WE would never consider laying big chalk on the road with a team that shoots alot from the outside, and good thing for us, that is not BAMA. Bama is one of the worst 3PT shooting teams in the country but they get it done from 2PT range. They shoot 52.6% from 2PT range (33rd) and they are 6th in 2PT% of total points. They are over 70% from theT line. They are 113th in OFF REB% while South Carolina is 275th in OFF REB% on defense. Bama should be able to score against a team that is 263rd in EFF FG% DEF. Bama is 9th in 3PT % DEF and 12th in 2PT% DEF. They are 3rd in EFF FG% DEF and their adjust DEF EFF is 6th. The bottom line is that this is one of the best defenses in the country. Bama has struggled the last couple of games getting outscored heavily at the FT line but this South Carolina team is 318th in FTA/FGA. The one glaring thing that jumps out to us is South Carolina's ability to get offensive rebounds. They are 23rd in OFF REB%. Bama is 194th in OFF REB% on defense but South Carolina is not the big, bulky team that Bama has struggled with at times in the paint. The Gamecocks have good athletes that crash the glass but Bama is as athletic as most any team in the country. If Bama takes care of the defensive glass then they win this game easily.
We expect a double digit win with South Carolina hovering right around 50 points for the game.
NCAA Expert Basketball Free Pick- Bama -6
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