There is nothing fancy about what the Spartans do - plenty of fullback leads and two-tight end sets that feature Baker and Bell getting downhill as quickly as possible.  And just as I said in my PSU write-up earlier this season, that style of offense really plays right into the strength of Bama’s defense, particularly a Bama defense with a healthy front seven.

Despite the wealth of talent Bama has on that side of the ball, they are probably the easiest offense in the SEC to defend.  Defenses have learned to simply stack all 11 players within 10 yards of the LOS to take away the run with no fear whatsoever that QB Greg McElroy can exploit the deep part of the field.  When McElroy drops back to pass, defenses frequently send more rushers than the o-line can account for, while the secondary squat on the short routes.  Opposing defensive coordinators are able to get away with this high-risk style of play because they know McElroy can’t or won’t exploit them vertically.  For a live demonstration of what I’m talking about, re-watch the second half of the Iron Bowl.

What I glean from all this is that this will be a very low-scoring affair.  Thus, my favorite play in this game is UNDER the total.